A B S T R A C T
This paper studies the development possibilities of the energy systems of four Central Asia
and Caspian countries. It explores options that improve their domestic energy efficiencies
and increase their export of fossil energy commodities. Using the MARKAL-TIMES modelling
tool, it represents their energy system with a bottom-up partial economic equilibrium
growth model. With the help of scenario analyses, it evaluates the direct economic
advantage of improving the domestic energy efficiencies. Furthermore it calculates the
direct economic advantage of cooperation. It finds out that a new/different geo-economic
attitude brings USD billions of annual economic benefits, particularly if the countries aim
to differentiate their export routes, increase the amount of export and contribute to
climate change mitigation.
2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/).